From the polls to the reaction of voters, the only thing keeping the President in this race is 9-11 and his "superb leadership" in that period.
Historically, America does not replace leaders in the middle of a war or conflict. If LBJ had run, he might have been able to take down psychotic Nixon in the genral.
The point is that voters know Bush his blowing smoke about the economy; but his misguided bluster makes most feel safe.
It took Reagan the whole election to convince voters to change ship. The same time period will be needed for Kerry. In a weird way, Bush needs this war in Iraq and Afghanistan to make himself useful to the voters. But given the crowds and the clear appetite for change, Kerry has a good chance to win even in the middle of a war.
FOr Kerry to win would be historic. We need to understand once 9-11 happened, Bush's re-election hopes increased dramatically because hisotrically, whether its Lincoln, Madison, Wilson, McKinley, voters dont throw out the President during a war.
Thats the landscape were working against. But unlike other wars America has fought, thus one increasingly makes less sense and EVERYBODY knows it. Thats why Bush gave little time to the actual conflict.